Research and Development at NOAA: Environmental Understanding to Ensure America's Vital and Sustainable FutureThis Five Year R&D Plan (hereafter the "Plan") will guide NOAA's R&D activities over the next five years. The Plan provides a common understanding among NOAA's leadership, its workforce, its partners, constituents, and Congress on the value of NOAA's R&D activities. As such, the Plan is a framework with which NOAA and the public can monitor and evaluate the Agency's progress and learn from past experience. The Plan builds upon the strategic foundation laid by NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan and the 123 NOAA 20 Year Research Vision. NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan focuses all Agency work (including R&D) around four long-term goals of Climate, Weather, Oceans, and Coasts. The NOAA 20 Year Research Vision accounts for the social and environmental trends impacting NOAA and its mission, and considers how particular innovations enable us to mitigate or adapt to these changes. Additionally, this Plan has been informed by strategic implementation plans developed across the Agency, and will inform annual revisions to these plans. Furthermore, this Plan has benefited from the results of NOAA's recent science challenge workshops, as well as from the input of NOAA scientists, engineers, and partners.National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNOAA_9d4497bd-ae0a-428e-8cc1-44d705aeeef2Kathy SullivanActing Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting NOAA Administrator... healthy ecosystems, communities and economies that are resilient in the face of change_b2187b3a-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9To guide NOAA's R&D activities_b2187e14-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9IntegrityFor science to be useful, it must be credible. NOAA's research must be conducted with the utmost integrity and transparency. The recently established NOAA Administrative Order on Scientific Integrity establishes a code of conduct for scientists and science managers to operate as a trusted source for environmental science. With this Order, NOAA has seized an opportunity to strengthen the confidence -- of scientists, decision makers who depend on NOAA science, as well as the general public -- in the quality and reliability of NOAA R&D.IntegrationThe crux of holistically understanding the earth's system is not only understanding its individual components, but understanding and interpreting the way each of the components interact and behave as an integrated composite that is more than the sum of its parts. Combining exploration, observations, process studies, modeling, and analysis can yield the improved understanding needed to effectively predict and sustainably participate in this complex system. NOAA is committed to providing the discipline-specific foundation and the multi-disciplinary integration required to achieve and exploit holistic understanding of the Earth system.InnovationThe business community has long recognized the inherent importance of sustained investment in R&D to promote industrial excellence. General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt, serving as the Chair of the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, has said "the mistake we make is by not making enough bets in markets that we're experts in." In the absence of such investment, services become stagnant and unresponsive to the constantly changing demands of the market. For a science-based agency, the argument is even more compelling; in place of market drivers, NOAA must remain responsive to the needs of the Nation, and do so in the face of challenges that cover a diversity of disciplines, time scales, and degrees of impact. Innovation is "the implementation of a new or significantly improved product (good or service), or process, a new marketing method, or a new organizational method in business practices, workplace organization or external relations." Ideas and inventions are necessary for innovation, though alone they are not sufficient. Innovation is the process of using ideas and inventions to create value. NOAA is committed to supporting innovation throughout its R&D enterprise to improve the understanding, products and services that support the Nation.BalanceNOAA is committed to pursuing the breadth of R&D required to address the immediate needs of the Nation and the emerging challenges of the future. As such, NOAA mus t maintain an appropriately balanced portfolio of activities (see Section 4.II.A below for more details on portfolio management). It must balance the need for long - term outcomes with outcomes that are more immediate. It must also balance the R&D needs among its strategic goals and enterprise objectives. Further, NOAA's R&D enterprise must be balanced with respect to demand for service and stewardship improvements (the "pull") with the new ideas that could revolutionize how goals are accomplished (the "push"). NOAA should strive for the appropriate balance of incremental, low - risk research investments with high-risk, high-reward initiatives (i.e., transformational research). Indeed, part of NOAA's scientific strength rests on its ability to encourage risk and, in doing so, tolerate failure. The Agency also needs to balance the potential of research directed by discrete, well-defined challenges with research that has objectives that are less well-defined. Often, the highest risk, most potentially transformative research is that which has the most tangible, time-bound objectives, such as the Apollo program in the 1960s aimed at "landing a man on the moon by the end of the decade and returning him safely to the earth." The right balance is often a judgment call, bet we can have greater confidence in such judgments when they are informed by the knowledge of NOAA's investments in these different dimensions of its R&D portfolio.CollaborationExtramural and cooperative research brings with it flexibility and diversity of capabilities. As noted in the 2004 SAB review of NOAA's research enterprise, extramural research investment brings with it: world class expertise not found in NOAA laboratories; enhanced connection to global science; leveraged external funding sources; multi-institutional coordination; access to external research facilities; and opportunities to engage with graduate and undergraduate students. Partners are necessary to help best articulate the needs and requirements driving the enterprise, but also to execute the research. Collaborative elements yield a wealth of innovation, serving to make NOAA's research enterprise greater than the sum of its parts.Climate Adaptation & MitigationAn informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts_b21881a2-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9AProjected future climate-related changes include increased global air and ocean temperatures, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, changes in precipitation, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in atmospheric composition. These, in turn, have many impacts such as earlier snowmelt, increased drought, altered river flow volumes, changes in growing seasons, declining air quality, and alterations in species' abundance, distributions, and migration patterns. Many of these impacts have already been observed, and significant additional impacts from these changes are expected to affect nearly every sector of society, including water, energy, transportation, insurance, banking, forestry, tourism, fisheries, agriculture, infrastructure, and human health. A changing climate will alter the distribution and availability of water and other natural resources that the Nation depends on. Changes in climate are also expected to exacerbate non-climatic human impacts on fisheries and marine ecosystems, such as overfishing, habitat destruction, pollution, changes in species distributions, and excess nutrients in coastal waters. Increased sea levels lead to amplified storm surge, putting low-lying areas at risk. The direct impact of climate change on commerce, transportation, society and the economy is demonstrated by retreating sea ice in the Arctic, which has made coastal communities, including tribes, highly vulnerable to winter storms and coastal inundation, forcing many to begin planning to move inland.Climate RecordSustained climate record._b21885c6-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A1Objective for R&D: Sustained climate record. NOAA will continue to provide the Nation and the world with an unambiguous measure of the state of the climate through uninterrupted, high quality in situ and remotely-sensed observations of primary variables describing the ocean, atmosphere, and other components of the climate system. Up-to-date and accurate knowledge of the state of the climate is critical to sustaining the Nation's economy (e.g., transportation, agriculture, fisheries), communities (e.g., health, land use) and ecosystem services (e.g., storm protection, tourism, habitat) in a changing world. Meeting NOAA's mission to protect lives and property from weather hazards in a changing climate requires a dedication to maintaining the legacy of critical and pioneering long-term surface observations of climate and atmospheric composition, improving the quality control, accuracy, and consistency of these observations, and providing support for global change basic research that provides the backbone for applied needs in climate adaptation. NOAA must sustain and build out its longstanding observations, data management, and monitoring of the oceans and atmosphere to enhance the fundamental scientific understanding and knowledge of our climate to help people make informed decisions. Priority should also be given strengthening synergies between observations and modeling for more effective use of existing resources. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Advance research on technological solutions for climate observations and the data they produce to improve the lifecycle, timeliness, and accuracy of these observations * Assess collected climate data for quality, uncertainty, and the implications for impacts; make data and subsequent products available to users * Develop and test improved climate observing systems in the deep ocean and Alaska * Develop sensors and robotic floats for biogeochemical, biooptical, and pH measurements Atmospheric & Oceanic ObservationsAtmospheric and oceanic observations integrated into Earth System modeling._b21886c0-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A2Objective for R&D: Atmospheric and oceanic observations integrated into Earth System modeling. Atmospheric climate models and even coupled atmosphere-ocean models are giving way to Earth System Models (ESMs) that advance our understanding of how Earth's biogeochemical cycles, including human actions, interact with the climate system. As the models become more complex, the data needed to evaluate and validate the models also becomes more complex and wide ranging. For example, the atmospheric component of the ESMs includes features such as atmospheric chemistry, aerosols (both natural and anthropogenic), cloud physics, and precipitation. the land component includes precipitation and evaporation, streams, lakes, rivers, and runoff as well as a terrestrial ecology component to simulate dynamic reservoirs of carbon and other tracers. the oceanic component includes features such as free surface to capture wave processes; water fluxes, or flow; currents; sea ice dynamics; iceberg transport of freshwater; and a state-of-the-art representation of ocean mixing as well as marine biogeochemistry and ecology. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Synthesize observations with models for reporting on the state of the climate system * integrate observations into short- and long-time scale modeling processes for characterizing the seasonal to multi-decadal scale variation of the climate system and assessing its predictability Oceanic, Terrestrial & Atmospheric ComponentsImproved understanding of interactions and processes of key oceanic, terrestrial, and atmospheric components of Earth's climate system._b21886c1-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A3Objective for R&D: Improved understanding of interactions and processes of key oceanic, terrestrial, and atmospheric components of Earth's climate system. As knowledge of the climate system deepens, an increasing array of processes and their interactions are being recognized and considered as important in understanding the causes of climate variations and change. Major factors include changes in atmospheric composition, the role of the ocean and atmosphere-ocean interactions, atmosphere-land surface interactions including hydrological processes, the role of the cryosphere and interactions with ecosystems and organisms. the processes extend across space and time scales, as do decision-maker needs, from information needed to prepare for extreme events on time scales of a season or less, to adaptation and mitigation policy decisions on time scales out to decades. Developing a more comprehensive understanding of climate processes and mechanisms, and their relative importance in explaining observed climate variations and change, will be essential to increasing confidence and credibility in climate predictions and projections. Such knowledge will also provide an improved scientific basis for characterizing associated uncertainties in predictions and climate change projections. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Assess the roles of natural variability (e.g., solar changes, volcanic eruptions) and changing radiative forcing (from greenhouse gases and aerosols) in causing observed seasonal-to-multidecadal scale changes in the climate system * Assess climate-induced changes in tropical and extratropical cyclones and their associated storm surges * Assess climate-induced changes in droughts and heat waves * Assess the potential for rapid changes in land-based ice sheets and their impact on global and regional sea level * Perform model simulations of ocean, atmosphere, and land-surface processes to support climate-scale hydrologic forecasting capabilities * Assess climate-induced changes on the hydrologic cycle in the extended Great lakes Basin, and its forecasted effect on water level variability * Assess the climate influences of ocean basin properties on interannual and decadal predictability * Assess the weather and climate features of the tropical oceans to achieve higher confidence in seasonal global and regional predictions (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation) * Assess the mechanisms that control climate sensitivity to surface albedo, water vapor, and clouds Trends & ImplicationsIdentify the causes of climate trends and their regional implications._b218879c-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A4Objective for R&D: Identify the causes of climate trends and their regional implications. Because many of the effects of a variable and changing climate will be felt most strongly at regional-to-local scales, understanding and predictions of regional climate variations and trends must be improved and placed on a firm scientific foundation. Regional climate trends and extreme events that are unanticipated leave decision makers and the public poorly prepared for planning and adaptation. A particularly important requirement is to understand the causes of weather and climate extremes, and whether they are changing. Extreme events often have regionally varying manifestations, and corresponding regional differences in decision-maker needs. For example, hurricanes and storm surges are a key concern on the U.S. Gulf and east coasts, droughts and severe convective storms adversely affect the Midwest, and potent extratropical storms that interact with deep plumes of tropical moisture often lead to heavy precipitation events along the U.S. west coast. A question of compelling public interest is whether recently observed extremes reflect variability that is likely to return to previous conditions or rather are a sign of a new long-term climate trend. Addressing the complex science challenges that occur at regional scales will require multi-disciplinary expertise, necessitating collaborations across NOAA and with external partners. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * identify causes for the observed regional and seasonal differences in U.S. temperature and precipitation trends and the relationships between trends in climate means and climate variability, especially extreme events, for predictions and projections * Clarify the contribution of climate-scale physical processes to extreme events and their variability and frequency * Assess the connections of polar and high latitude climate variability and change with that of other regions, including the effects of declining sea ice on extratropical climate * Provide enhanced access to the current state-of-knowledge on the causes of regional climate trends and extreme events provided to the public and decision makers for planning, adaptation, and other applications * Conduct assessments of climate impacts on regional communities and economic sectors * Collaborate with economists to provide enhanced monitoring of the costs of weather and climate disasters Gases & PollutantsImprove understanding of the changing atmospheric composition of long-lived greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants._b21888d2-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A5Objective for R&D: Improve understanding of the changing atmospheric composition of long-lived greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants. NOAA will improve understanding of changes in atmospheric composition to assess the climate forcings, sensitivities, and feedbacks of both long-lived greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, N2O, CFCs) and short-lived climate pollutants (e.g., aerosols, tropospheric ozone) and associated uncertainties. improved measurements and analyses of the trends and distributions, sources, transport, chemical transformation, and fate of these climate-forcing agents will lead to more skilled models, which will yield better predictions and projections of future climate and its impacts at local, regional, and global scales. Due to their multiple roles in the atmosphere, an improved understanding of these climate-forcing agents and the processes that influence their distributions will yield additional benefits for reducing air quality degradation and recovery of stratospheric ozone layer. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Quantify emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and black carbon, and assess the effects of black carbon and organic aerosols on clouds * Reduce uncertainty of North American CO2 flux estimates by 1% * Evaluate the effects of four replacement compounds for refrigerants, solvents, and blowing agents on climate and on the stratospheric ozone layer * Assess the impact of stratospheric ozone incursions on the tropospheric ozone burden (i.e., climate effects) and on surface air quality in different regions of the U.S. * Determine the effects of increasing emissions in different regions of the U.S. (e.g. urban emissions, and oil and natural gas development activities emissions) on climate and regional air chemistryEarth System ModelsEarth System Models for seasonal to centennial predictions and projections at regional to global scales._b2189610-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A6Objective for R&D: Earth System Models for seasonal to centennial predictions and projections at regional to global scales. NOAA will improve the skill of seasonal forecasts and delivery of information products (e.g., predictions, projections) for decadal to centennial time scales with quantified uncertainties. Additionally, NOAA will improve regional outlooks through downscaling approaches, high-resolution global climate model runs, multi-model ensembles, and better representation of key physical and biogeochemical processes, including ocean dynamics, with specification and quantification of uncertainties. Failing to fill the various modeling gaps in key physical and biogeochemical processes risks leaving decision makers with insufficient scientific support concerning future climate states. improved information will enable decision makers to properly address regional and local planning for the impacts of flooding and drought, declining air quality, siting of critical infrastructure in coastal communities, and managing natural resources with changing conditions of our oceans and other ecosystems. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop higher-resolution coupled-climate models * Develop a prototype decadal climate prediction system * Develop sound modeling downscaling techniques for climate applications for multiple regional spatial and temporal scales, including an embedded and nested regional Earth system projection capability * Develop models of greenhouse gases, atmospheric aerosols (including black carbon), and aerosol interactions that yield uncertainty in climate sink quantification and effects on climate forcing * Perform prototype modeling of climate-stratospheric chemistry interconnections * Develop models simulating the ocean biogeochemical systems and ocean climatic impacts at resolutions of 3-5 km * Assess predictability and predictive skill for global experimental decadal-scale predictions that account for natural variability and the climate-forcing agents * Develop an intraseasonal to interannual prediction system that builds on the currently experimental real-time National Multi-Model Ensemble system and incorporates advances in statistical methodologies and forecast initialization * Develop seasonal outlooks and decadal to multidecadal projections of climate-related changes in U.S. ocean regions including projections for regional sea-level change Impacts & VulnerabilitiesKey impacts and vulnerabilities are identified across regions and sectors._b2189611-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A7Objective for R&D: Key impacts and vulnerabilities are identified across regions and sectors. NOAA will advance understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of human and natural systems to climate variability and change. this requires integrating NOAA's capabilities in science (physical, natural, and social), services, and stakeholder engagement. NOAA is experiencing a rapidly growing demand for climate information at scales (e.g. local-to-regional) useful for decision and policy makers. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Advance projects/activities focused on the impacts of climate variability and change on four societal challenge areas – weather extremes, water resources, coastal inundation, and sustaining marine ecosystems * Strengthen and test climate-related vulnerability assessments of ecosystems and social/economic systems and tools and training for conducting vulnerability assessments with NOAA partners * Develop mechanisms and networks (regional and sectoral) to advance effective stakeholder engagement, communication, and collaboration with scientists and decision makers Risks & ImpactsImproved and sustained assessments of risks and impacts._b2189612-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A8Objective for R&D: Improved and sustained assessments of risks and impacts. NOAA will organize and strengthen capabilities in the sustained assessment of climate risks and impacts on physical, natural, and human systems. this work will leverage and inform existing assessment efforts (e.g., U.S. National Climate Assessment, intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Assessments will be conducted in partnership with decision makers to ensure that their information needs are addressed. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Sustain assessments of the impacts and risks of climate variability and change on U.S. and international regions and sectors, particularly those with high relevance to NOAA's mission (e.g., water resources, coastal zone and marine resource management) * Develop a system of indicators of climate impacts on ocean and coastal resources and other sectors Information, Tools & ServicesClimate information, tools, and services are developed and shared broadly to inform society's preparedness and response efforts._b2189613-02f1-11e4-8d43-780fa0b8dfe9A9Objective for R&D: Climate information, tools, and services are developed and shared broadly to inform society's preparedness and response efforts. the demand for NOAA's climate information, tools, and services is increasing, as decision-makers work to prepare for the impacts of climate variability and climate change. Meeting this demand will require regular interaction between stakeholders and scientists. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop visualization and decision-support tools for changes in ocean temperature, coastal inundation, and sea-level at decision-relevant scales integrate county-level coastal and ocean job trends data via NOAA's Digital Coast to enable decision makers and planners to better assess the economic impacts of climate change and extreme events Develop methods (including economic analyses) for evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and actions, particularly for coasts, oceans, and water resources * improve communication and application of NOAA's climate information to decision makers and the public through outreach, education, training, user-friendly online resources (e.g. climate.gov), social media, tools, and other pathways Weather Ready NationSociety is prepared for and responds to weather related events_39e83f03-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533BA Weather Ready Nation is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, economy, and homeland security. Urbanization and a growing population increasingly put people and businesses at greater risk to the impacts of weather, water, and climate-related hazards. NOAA's capacity to provide relevant information can help create a society that is more adaptive to its environment; experiences fewer disruptions, dislocations, and injuries; and that operates a more efficient economy. Key Question: How can we improve forecasts, warnings and decision support for high-impact weather events?ObservationsImproved observations._39e83f04-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B1Objective for R&D: Improved observations. The building blocks of the Weather Ready Nation are observations of the current state of the atmosphere. These form the basis of the future state of the atmosphere when assimilated into high resolution computer models which produce information upon which public forecasts and warnings are based. They are the underpinning of both tactical and strategic decision support. An incomplete picture of the atmospheric boundary layer, where most human activity occurs, represents a major gap in our ability to diagnose and predict high-impact weather events. Filling this gap will take more than the next 5 years, but significant milestones are in sight during this time frame. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Establish rapid radar sampling technologies needed to produce robust ensemble-based numerical model warnings of severe weather with extended lead-times, up to one hour or longer * Integrate the National Mesonet with complete coverage of surface meteorological stations over the continental US, including soil moisture and solar radiation * Develop the foundational infrastructure for a "Network of Networks" that provides boundary layer profiles of winds, temperature, and moisture * Evaluate Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of Atmosphere (CASA)/Urban Demonstration Network and other partner technology of short-wavelength networked radars, adaptive sampling, and associated numerical weather prediction * Operationalize the geostationary lightning mapper (GOES-R) * Develop Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Systems configurations supporting multi-mission sensors including radiometer, Lidar, spectrometer, dropsondes, and Doppler radar, with at least a 24-hour mission duration * Conduct feasibility studies to fill major gaps in observations of water cycle parameters (e.g., water vapor transport, precipitation, snow, river flow, sea-ice, waves, water level, surface energy budget terms including evapotranspiration and aerosols)AnalysesIntegrated real-time analyses of weather conditions._39e83f05-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B2Objective for R&D: Integrated real-time analyses of weather conditions. NOAA will develop tools and algorithms needed to integrate data from diverse observational platforms (NOAA and partners) into rapidly updating, storm-scale information. Integration of available observations from diverse platforms, sensors, coverage, and both internal and external providers is needed to meet goals to provide storm-scale information critical to meeting goals for forecasts and warnings of high-impact weather goals. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Prototype coupled fire weather and fire behavior modeling system for local firefighting applications * Implement a prototype of a rapidly updating 3-dimensional state-of-the-atmosphere analysis system * Transition the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System to operations * Transition the Multi-Radar-Multi-Sensor real-time analysis system to operationsPredictive GuidanceImproved predictive guidance._39e84ad8-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B3Objective for R&D: Improved predictive guidance. One of the scientific success stories of the 20th century is the development of numerical weather prediction models; today, NOAA produces weather forecasts of proven utility out to a week based on these models. On the other hand, tornado warnings are not issued on the basis of forecasts, but rather upon observed evidence. Today's science and technology do not yet allow scientists to describe the genesis of a tornado, model it, and predict its path, a capability that could save many additional lives. Similarly, while we have dramatically improved the prediction of the track of hurricanes in recent years, progress in improving forecasts of hurricane intensity, and associated storm surge and rainfall has been slower. In addition, significant R&D is needed to present NOAA weather forecasts in a probabilistic framework that allows for the proper communication of forecast uncertainty and to enable a wide range of risk-based decision-making. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop a global deterministic forecasting system at a resolution of 10 km and the associated ensemble forecast system at a resolution of 20 km * Determine the impacts of stratospheric resolution on simulations of slowly varying tropospheric weather patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific North Atlantic teleconnection pattern * Evaluate the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on short-range weather forecasts * Implement a moveable inner nest for hurricanes within the operational global forecast system * Determine the relative merits of different approaches to ensemble generation including multi-model, stochastic physics, and multi-physics * Identify the most effective way to represent initial condition uncertainty for NOAA's forecast models, i.e. EnKF ensemble members versus the breeding method * Implement advanced statistical methods for post-processing ensemble guidance to accurately quantify uncertainty and improve reliability * Prototype a unified (tide-waves-estuarine-surge) probabilistic inundation model for both tropical and extratropical storms * Conduct a multi-year reanalysis of Doppler radar data to establish convective storm behavior climatologiesDecision SupportImproved decision support tools._39e84ad9-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B4Objective for R&D: Improved decision support tools. NOAA is embarking on a major enhancement and expansion of its decision support services to better realize the benefits of its weather forecasts and warnings. For decision makers, the Agency will improve the communication of weather, water and climate impacts and risks, as well as develop impact-based communication capabilities. In addition, NOAA will incorporate quantified uncertainty and risk information into its forecasts to facilitate analyses for strategic and tactical preparation and effective response. Limiting weather- related loss of life and property requires eliciting the most effective response to accurate, reliable warnings and forecasts. Next-generation warning concepts will be developed and tested to improve these desired societal responses through the delivery of quantitative and user-specific information. The target operational system for all these tools is the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Prototype a comprehensive operational IT forecaster decision support environment for WRN operations * Deploy a unified public warning tool into operations * Implement initial capability to allow external users to be notified when thresholds for their weather-based decisions have been exceeded in either current or future weather conditions * Improve air quality modeling of fine particulate matter from wildfires, dust storms, and other pollution sources * Prototype coupled evacuation route-inundation-storm surge model for targeted regions of the Gulf Coast * Prototype warning methodologies that capitalize on future output from storm-scale models * Evaluate experimental products from which tornado warnings with lead times greater than 1 hour can be generated * Develop risk communication tools based upon behavioral research on the timing and effectiveness of public response to weather warningsPreparedness & ResponseApply understanding of weather and climate extremes and the weather-climate linkage to improve preparedness and response._39e84ada-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B5Objective for R&D: Apply understanding of weather and climate extremes and the weather-climate linkage to improve preparedness and response. With a greater understanding of the climate-weather linkage, all sectors of society will be better prepared for extreme events. Coastal communities and related industries, environmental resource managers, national, regional, state, and local governments, and the public will have longer lead times to prepare for the impacts of hazardous weather events. In the past 10 years, knowledge and predictability of climate and its impacts on weather has evolved, but with the changing climate and the recent onslaught of extreme weather events, it is critical to improve our understanding of climate-weather linkages. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Integrate understanding of the physical processes of Madden-Julian Oscillation events, atmospheric rivers, predictability of AO/North Atlantic Oscillation, and tropical convection, into operational forecast products * Incorporate local and regional climate impacts into extreme meteorological and hydrological event forecasts * Expand the Local Climate Analysis Tool to include multiple time and space scales for delivery of information in support of regional and local decision makingGeomagnetic StormsImprove accuracy of 1-4 day forecasts of geomagnetic storms._39e84adb-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B6Objective for R&D: Improved accuracy of 1-4 day forecasts of geomagnetic storms. The energy for geomagnetic storms originates from the sun in the form of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). It takes several days to propagate to Earth. Improving the detection and assessment of CME's through observations with operational coronagraphs will greatly improve NOAA's ability to forecast geomagnetic storms, which can disrupt the Nation's power grid, wireless communication network, and transportation infrastructure. Measuring and tracking the magnetic configuration within the CME will greatly improve the accuracy of the forecasts of the strength of the resulting geomagnetic storm. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop an operational coronagraph flown and supported within the NOAA satellite program * Develop methods of estimating the magnetic field configuration within a CMEGeomagnetic StormsLocalized specification and forecasts of the impacts of geomagnetic storms at ground level._39e84adc-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B7Objective for R&D: Localized specification and forecasts of the impacts of geomagnetic storms at ground level. Critical customers, such as electric power companies, have requested specific improvements in space weather forecasts, such as regional specification and forecasts of the impact of geomagnetic storms (currently only the global index of the strength of the storm is provided). Research is underway, in partnership with the USGS and NASA, to gather regional information from a network of ground observations and develop maps of the impact of geomagnetic storms. Forecasting these regional impacts requires the introduction of a new Geospace model into operations. R&D activities are underway in collaboration with NASA to evaluate and test models from the research community for transition into operations. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop and test the DSCOVR spacecraft and ground data processing system to insure continuity of solar wind observations that drive Geospace models * Develop regional and local specification of the geomagnetic conditions relevant to the National electric power grid * Identify the best Geospace model for forecasting local geomagnetic storm conditions and begun the transition of this model into operationsIonospheric ConditionsPredictions of ionospheric conditions relevant to Global Navigation Satellite System users._39e84add-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B8Global Navigation Satellite System UsersObjective for R&D: Predictions of ionospheric conditions relevant to Global Navigation Satellite System users. The observation and modeling of ionospheric structures that modify or block the signals from radio navigation systems such as Global Positioning System is critical to providing customers with the services they are requesting. Global Radio Occultation (RO) observations will provide key inputs to the products and models. Developing a Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) coupled with an Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-Electrodynamics model (IPE) will provide the necessary framework for forecasting ionospheric conditions. Over the next 5 years NOAA aims to: * Develop assimilative models for COSMIC II data * Couple NOAA's operational WAM (e.g. the extended Global Forecast System) to the Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics model (IPE) * Assess the impact of data assimilation in ionosphere- thermosphere forecast modelingRadiation EnvironmentImproved specification and forecasts of the radiation environment for satellites and commercial aircraft._39e84ade-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B9Objective for R&D: Improved specification and forecasts of the radiation environment for satellites and commercial aircraft. Satellite operators have requested products that turn localized NOAA satellite measurements of the radiation environment into global actionable information on how the environment may damage satellite systems. New products to monitor and forecast radiation exposure for air traffic are sought by commercial airline operators and crew. These new products require modeling of the radiation environment. Current research models provide some utility but a full assessment of model capability and accuracy is needed. Over the next 5 years NOAA aims to: * Develop models that predict the radiation environment at aircraft and satellite altitudesHydrologic ForecastsIncreased hydrologic forecast skill from low to high streamflow conditions to match skill afforded by weather and climate predictions._39e84d76-0bd3-11e4-abb1-6720eedc8533B10Objective for R&D: Increased hydrologic forecast skill from low to high streamflow conditions to match skill afforded by weather and climate predictions. The foundation of improved fresh water resources management is improved hydrologic forecasting. Significant advances in hydrologic prediction demand a more complete understanding of the physical processes key to storms and floods. This knowledge must in turn be incorporated into improved numerical hydrologic prediction models. * Diagnose the variability of water vapor transport in atmospheric rivers * Identify extreme precipitation and precursor land-surface conditions that amplify or reduce drought and flood severity * Unify a large-scale hydrological modeling system allowing integrated and multiscale predictions, projections and analyses * Develop high-resolution hydrologic products that directly link atmospheric and land-surface processes and depict the full water cycle over the U.S. * Conduct a national water cycle reanalysisHealthy OceansMarine fisheries, habitat, and biodiversity are sustained within healthy and productive ecosystems_c97a76a2-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eCNOAA's goal for Healthy Oceans is that marine fisheries, habitat, and biodiversity are sustained within healthy and productive ecosystems. To achieve this goal, R&D will be directed to answer the following questions: * How do environmental changes affect marine ecosystems? * What exists in the unexplored areas of our oceans? * How can emerging technologies improve ecosystem-based management? * How can we ensure aquaculture is sustainable? * How is the chemistry of our ocean changing and what are the effects?Physical & Chemical ChangesIncrease our knowledge of the physical and chemical changes in the oceans resulting from atmospheric, ocean, and land-based forcing._c97a7b5c-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eC1Objective for R&D: Increase our knowledge of the physical and chemical changes in the oceans resulting from atmospheric, ocean, and land-based forcing. Providing regional forecasts and projections requires understanding how physical and chemical variables across the ocean and watershed conditions change, assessing these conditions, and developing the capability for prediction. These forecasts and projections are critical toward incorporating environmental information into marine resource management. Species inhabit certain regions because they are adapted to the environmental conditions typically present there. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Increase collection and use of high-quality environmental data in describing and understanding the dominant forcings of the oceans and their physical and chemical impacts * Increase collection and use of high-resolution, regionally constrained environmental data to support regional forecasts and projectionsMarine Species & EcosystemsIncrease our knowledge and understanding of the mechanisms and impacts of environmental changes on marine species and ecosystems._eb091a58-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC2Objective for R&D: Increase our knowledge and understanding of the mechanisms and impacts of environmental changes on marine species and ecosystems. The National Ocean Policy establishes ecosystem-based management (EBM) as a foundational principle for ocean resource management in the United States. Understanding how environmental changes affect marine ecosystems provides the scientific underpinning of EBM and is crucial for sustaining marine fisheries, habitat, and biodiversity within healthy and productive ecosystems. Human activities and climate change can impact population connectivity and this needs to be taken into account when implementing management measures. The success of management measures (e.g., HAPCs, MPAs, and MPA networks) to protect, conserve, and restore marine habitats or populations hinges on the establishment of ecologically relevant boundaries that take into account propagule (spores, eggs, and larvae) connectivity, as well as the movements of juveniles and adults. A combination of retrospective and process studies, monitoring and modeling are required to advance our understanding of the impacts of environmental change. NOAA must understand the mechanisms by which environmental change impacts marine species and ecosystems to confidently predict or project the impacts. Without this mechanistic understanding, there is no basis for predictions or projections when conditions change, resulting in uncertain assessments and forecasts. Observations coupled with information from retrospective and process studies generate the necessary foundation for understanding environmental-ecosystem elationships. Combining this information with ecosystem models that include environmental forcing also contributes to understanding the mechanistic linkages between environmental forcing and species' responses. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Decrease uncertainty in the forecasts generated from ecosystem models * Develop analytical models and tools to understand and quantify impacts of environmental change in three large marine ecosystemsMarine ResourceIncorporate environmental change information into operational marine resource assessments and decision-making._eb0923f4-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC3Objective for R&D: Incorporate environmental change information into operational marine resource assessments and decision-making. A stronger scientific basis for improved marine resource management requires increased incorporation of environmental change information into operational assessments and decision-making. To transition to EBM, the increased knowledge obtained through the first two objectives must be incorporated into operational assessments and the decision making process. The increased knowledge will advance the development and testing of indicators and models to predict with greater certainty the probable consequences of environmental changes on regional ecosystems. Some of these indicators or derived parameters may be incorporated directly into next generation stock assessments. Moreover, the development of ecosystem assessments and management strategy evaluations that incorporate environmental and climate change information and evaluate different ecosystem management strategies will provide resource managers with information to make more cost-effective and informed decisions in an ecosystem context. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop regional-scale ecosystem models driven by regional-scale climate models * Develop next-generation stock assessments that incorporate the effects of environmental change on stock dynamics * Develop protected species and habitat valuation for regions identified in the Habitat Blueprint * Assess social and economic benefits of fish stocks and the potential trade-offs associated with managing competing ecosystem services or allocating an ecosystem service among competing user groupsOcean AcidificationUnderstand the processes of ocean acidification and its consequences for marine organisms, ecosystems, and human communities._eb0927fa-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC4Objective for R&D: Understand the processes of ocean acidification and its consequences for marine organisms, ecosystems, and human communities. As atmospheric CO2 continues to rise, ocean chemistry is fundamentally altered through the continual uptake of excess carbon. Changes include acidifying surface waters (i.e. reduced pH), enriching them in CO2, and making the waters less supersaturated with respect to carbonate minerals. Many marine ecosystems may be susceptible to ocean acidification, particularly organisms partly composed of calcium carbonate (a chalk-like mineral) such as foraminifera, clams, oysters, mussels and corals. Local processes can exacerbate global-scale ocean acidification such as coastal upwelling along the west-coast of the U.S. Here, acidified waters likely contributed to a recent crisis in larval supplies in the Northwest's shellfish industry. Much research is needed before we can fully understand the broader impacts to marine life and human societies. Understanding acidification and predicting the consequences for marine resources and ecosystem services is critical to carbon mitigation discussions and to aid local communities in better preparing and adapting to ocean acidification. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop bio-economic models informed by targeted experimental studies to forecast ocean acidification impacts on federally managed and Alaska managed crab species * Conduct ocean acidification vulnerability assessment of California Current food webs and economics * Establish long-term high quality monitoring capabilities of ocean acidification and ecosystem response * Implement coupled biogeochemical and ecological coral reef ocean acidification status and trends diagnostic monitoring as a key attribute of the National Coral Reef Monitoring Plan within each U.S. coral reef jurisdictions * Provide scientific stewardship of comprehensive ocean acidification dataOcean Basin BoundariesMap and characterize ocean basin boundaries._eb092a52-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC5Objective for R&D: Map and characterize ocean basin boundaries. Ocean boundaries include those with the solid Earth (e.g., the seafloor, ridges, canyons, faults, and seamounts), the atmosphere (e.g., air-sea interface), ice (e.g., ice types and ages, keels, ridges, shelves, icebergs) and boundaries within the water column itself. Processes occurring at these boundaries have economic, safety (e.g., natural hazards), scientific, and cultural importance. Characterizing ocean basin boundaries requires using advanced technologies and systems, including autonomous underwater vehicles, multi-beam sonar, side-scan sonar, and other advanced seafloor and water column sensors and mapping technologies. Over the next 5 years, NOAA expects to: * Explore poorly-known or unknown regions in support of the U.S. Extended Continental Shelf Project and in the Expanded U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone in the Mid-Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, West Pacific, and Arctic * Develop and apply technologies and systems to document ocean basin boundaries in areas defined above and provide ecological baseline characterizations of these areasOcean ResourcesDiscover and characterize new ocean resources NOAA continually seeks to discover, observe, and describe new species, communities of organisms, and resources, both living and non-living._eb09307e-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC6Objective for R&D: Discover and characterize new ocean resources NOAA continually seeks to discover, observe, and describe new species, communities of organisms, and resources, both living and non-living. These include species and resources of economic importance and/or benefit to humanity (e.g., natural products for pharmaceutical or biotechnology applications; new hydrate, seep, or microbial environments; cultural/archaeological resources; fish stocks and baseline biodiversity inventories; valuable mineral resources). Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Discover and characterize new habitats and biological communities including microbes associated with hydrothermal vent communities, mesophotic and deep-sea coral habitats, and methane seeps and communities * Identify new natural products derived from deep sea biota and marine microbes * Identify undiscovered areas of the ocean with potential high concentrations of economic assets * Locate new underwater cultural and archaeological heritage sites in U.S. territorial waters for Federal managementOcean ExplorationTransition ocean exploration discoveries to the rest of NOAA and other agencies. _eb0933d0-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC7Objective for R&D: Transition ocean exploration discoveries to the rest of NOAA and other agencies. Results from exploration will highlight areas, resources, or processes that are new to ocean science or in need of further study. By design, these discoveries will directly apply to NOAA mission areas and many of these will benefit other agencies for further research. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Complete the Atlantic Canyons Undersea Mapping Expeditions (ACUMEN) Project in support of the NOAA Habitat Blueprint Northeast regional initiative * Provide baseline characterization information for the establishment of marine protected areas for sensitive deep-sea coral ecosystems in the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico * Explore mid-Atlantic deepwater hard bottom habitats and shipwrecks with emphasis on canyons and coral communities as part of a joint project with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management * Characterize marine archaeological discoveries of cultural or archaeological significance Survey CapabilitiesImprove survey capabilities to provide more accurate, precise and synoptic information of key marine populations._eb09363c-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC8Objective: Improve survey capabilities to provide more accurate, precise and synoptic information of key marine populations. Improvements are needed to advance survey capabilities to provide more accurate, precise, and synoptic information of key marine populations and environmental influences on their production and distributions using innovative technologies. Remote sensing and alternative platforms can improve survey coverage without significant increases in expensive ship time. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Decrease uncertainty in the forecasts generated from ecosystem models * Enhance UAS camera systems for marine mammal surveys * Operationalize animal-borne observing systems at the scale of NOAA's regional ecosystemsBiomass & MortalityImprove biomass and mortality estimates and address measurement uncertainty with technologies aboard existing surveys._eb093c68-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC9Objective for R&D: Improve biomass and mortality estimates and address measurement uncertainty with technologies aboard existing surveys. Improving abundance estimates and addressing measure uncertainty requires the development and implementation of technologies used in existing surveys, and pertinent environmental and ecological measures. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Increase the frequency of ecosystem-process studies that employ advanced sampling technology * Decrease uncertainty in the forecasts generated from ecosystem models Synoptic DataDevelop integrated models that take advantage of synoptic data at various scales, to inform ecosystem-based management approach._eb093f92-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC10Objective: Develop integrated models that take advantage of synoptic data at various scales, to inform ecosystem-based management approach. Data from emerging sampling technologies will provide synoptic information to develop biological models capable of providing regional-scale assessments and forecasts of biological productive. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Decrease uncertainty in the forecasts generated from ecosystem modelsSpecies Culture MethodsEnhance current species culture methods and identify new commercially viable species._eb0941fe-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC11Objective for R&D: Enhance current species culture methods and identify new commercially viable species. Increasing the aquaculture capacity of the U.S. to compete with foreign nations and improve culture methods domestically will not only enhance the sustainability of our products, but also increase the variety of seafood available. Increasing the accuracy and ability to monitor and evaluate culture methods will ensure that these practices are done in a smart way. In order to do so, NOAA will need to increase capacities encouraging expansion of aquaculture options. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop and transfer culture technologies for commercially viable marine aquaculture species * Develop aquaculture methods for species with high potential commercial viabilityAquacultureSupport aquaculture as an effective tool for improving coastal community economies and improving habitat quality._eb094744-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC12Objective for R&D: Supporting aquaculture as an effective tool for improving coastal community economies and improving habitat quality. NOAA is committed to increasing our ability to continue conducting aquaculture practices sustainably. Along with providing jobs and economic opportunities, aquaculture is a tool that can be used for improving and monitoring habitat quality. Shellfish, such as oysters, clams, and mussels, remove excess nutrients from the water column and can be used as bioremediation tools. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Assess the potential of restoration and wild fishery enhancement as bioremediation tools * Identify the social and economic impacts of marine aquaculture on U.S. coastal communitiesAquaculture Facility SitingCreate new technologies for better siting aquaculture facilities._eb094af0-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eC13Objective for R&D: Create new technologies for better siting aquaculture facilities. Improving our current ability to understand the impacts of commercial aquaculture on the environment will help limit these impacts by placing facilities in areas that do not interfere with other coastal resources. Increased knowledge of proper site selection is critical for sustainability. Water quality impacts are likely to be minimal at offshore fish farm sites that are sited in deep, well-flushed water. Technologies such as ecological models and GIS databases of coastal use areas will enable sustainable choices. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop models to assess the environmental impacts and the technical feasibility of permitting offshore finfish cultureResilient Coastal Communities & Economies Coastal and Great Lakes communities are environmentally and economically sustainable_c97a7d46-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eDNOAA's goal for Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies is that coastal and Great Lakes communities are environmentally and economically sustainable. To achieve this goal, R&D will be directed to answer the following questions: * What is the value of coastal ecosystems? * How do coastal species respond to and relate to habitat loss, degradation and change? * How do we ensure that growing maritime commerce stays safe and sustainable? * How do we reduce the economic, ecological, and health impacts of degraded water quality? * How is the Arctic affected by expanding industry and commerce?Economics & BehaviorImprove understanding of the economic and behavioral elements of coastal resilience._c97a7ed6-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eD1Objective for R&D: Improved understanding of the economic and behavioral elements of coastal resilience. NOAA will estimate the value of ecosystem services to inform management decisions, apply ocean and coastal economic data to better understand the economic importance of the coast and the dependence of the economy on coastal and ocean ecosystems, produce information on economic losses due to coastal hazards to help mitigate negative impacts, and assess and understand behaviors related to climate change impacts toward increased community and economic resiliency. The sustainability and resilience of coastal communities and economies depends on healthy ecosystems and a clear picture of the connection between society and the natural capital provided by ecosystems. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Identify best practices and incorporated Common International Standards for Ecosystem Services in economic valuation studies * Conduct risk-based analyses of hazards to coastal communities and ecosystem services in a pilot area, using best practices and innovative approaches * Develop socio-economic indicators of coastal community well-being and vulnerability to industrial development and environmental change, and apply the indicators in developing regional ecological characterization reports * Build integrated water level models, and evaluate costs and benefits of transitioning the coastal storm surge model (surge plus wave prediction) to operations * Characterize climate sensitivity of selected National Estuarine Research Reserve System sites using social vulnerability and biophysical indicators * Develop estimates of monetary and social costs of hypoxic zones, regions experiencing HABs, and designated Areas of Concern (AOCs) in Lake MichiganEnvironmental StressorsDetermine combined effects of environmental stressors on coastal species and ecosystems._eb094e1a-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD2Objective for R&D: Determine combined effects of environmental stressors on coastal species and ecosystems. Coastal ecosystems are affected by different environmental stressors, including extreme natural events, coastal subsidence and sea-level changes. These stressors, when coupled with land and resource use activities, cause changes in ecosystem structure and function that have proven difficult to assess or mitigate. It has not been possible to determine combined effects of environmental stressors on coastal ecosystems, including those caused by myriads of toxic chemicals. New and developing technologies, including those based on genomics, DNA probes, immunological biomarkers, etc. are beginning to offer a common denominator or a suite of methods that could infer or quantify such impacts. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Identify sub-lethal effects, including metabolic and reproductive dysfunction and transcriptomic and proteomic changes in species under environmental stress * Document the combined effects of multiple stressors on at least one coastal ecosystem and the valued species therein * Characterize sources, transport, transformation and fate of mercury pollution in Mobile Bay * Develop models that simulate contaminant transport from the watershed to coastal bays and estuaries Accuracy & AccessImprove accuracy of and access to oceanographic products and navigation services._eb095388-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD3Objective for R&D: Improved accuracy of and access to oceanographic products and navigation services. NOAA will focus on the evaluation and optimal use of advanced sensors, automation of geospatial and cartographic information for decision support, and oceanographic modeling that support hydrographic surveying and navigation safety, and integrated ocean and coastal mapping. This priority will emphasize techniques for multi-use and multi-sourced mapping data, re-purposing, extension and transition to operations of models, and providing real time, enhanced data streams to meet customer demands. It will also improve the efficiency of operations within NOAA for mapping applications in general. The resulting advances in the state-of-the-art will have immediate application in the marine navigation community as it transitions to all-electronic ship bridges. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Correct meter-level errors in Arctic positioning and provide a new vertical reference frame to support Arctic navigation * Document mathematical proof that a 1 cm accuracy geoid is achievable, and describe U.S. areas where it cannot be achieved * Evaluate and transition new technologies and tools that provide real-time observations and forecasts of water levels, tides and currents to mariners and offshore industries * Evaluate and transition new technologies for acquiring shallow water bathymetry such as bathymetric lidar and satellite-based bathymetry into operations that support the Integrated Ocean and Coastal Mapping program * Integrate the inventory of ocean and coastal mapping data and link it to Ocean.data.gov * Transition research on time varying nature of sea level trends and exceedance probabilities to operational products, including projections into the future * Complete development of VDatum tidal models and geodetic models for Alaska and transitioned results to the operational VDatum Tool Environmental Characterization ReportsRegion-specific environmental characterization reports that highlight multiple resource uses and offer options for minimizing resource- and space-use conflicts or impacts of coastal pollution._eb095716-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD4Objective for R&D: Region-specific environmental characterization reports that highlight multiple resource uses and offer options for minimizing resource- and space-use conflicts or impacts of coastal pollution. Environmental characterizations provide comprehensive and integrated information about the coastal environment and are prepared in anticipation of a specific resource development or an emerging environmental issue. Often they include analysis of management options and may include modeling of specific environmental processes and scenarios. These can include habitat suitability modeling, simulations to identify impacts of coastal wind energy development on birds, and projections to determine biological concentrations and habitat use in areas of data paucity or gaps. The scope and nature of ecological characterization are determined by working collaboratively across federal agencies and with state, regional, local and Tribal partners, as well as non-governmental organizations. Characterization reports are made broadly available for use by industry, federal and state managers, industries, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions moving forward Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Assess the status of ecological condition and potential stressor impacts in continental shelf waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico * Assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout targeted AOCs in Great Lakes coastal waters, with an emphasis on information to evaluate changes in the quality of these areas relative to Beneficial Use Impairment designations and corresponding remediation action in the AOCs * Couple marsh-physical models to dynamically assess ecological effects of sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico and demonstrate results in at least one National Estuarine Research Reserve, utilizing long-term monitoring data from the reserve * Establish linkages between land-use and coastal degradation within priority geographic areas, including models that predict their future stateEcological ForecastingRegion-specific, nationwide, operational capability for ecological forecasting._eb0959c8-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD5Objective for R&D: Region-specific, nationwide, operational capability for ecological forecasting. NOAA will develop a regionally focused, nationwide capability to forecast event-specific harmful environmental conditions, transition the capability into operations and facilitate its management applications. Emphasis will be on improving the modeling architecture and reducing forecast uncertainties. Ecological forecasting requires integration of observations, data from experiments, and any theoretical constructs, and efforts are underway to progressively reduce uncertainties over spatial and temporal scales of interest. It will enhance current efforts to document ecosystem response to environmental stressors and transfer that capability to coastal resource managers. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Document uncertainties in ecological forecasts in areas where forecasting capability currently exists * Characterize the species-specific habitat preferences (light, salinity and temperature) for HABs that cause ciguatera fish poisoning in the Caribbean to inform models of their distribution, abundance and seasonality * Expand the HAB forecast system to a national scale in support of NOAA's Ecological Forecasting Roadmap through the development of a standardized and modular system for data synthesis, analysis, and product creation * Demonstrate the utility of multiple modeling approaches in characterizing hypoxic conditions, and transition scenario-based modeling ensemble to operational use for the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone * Transition ecological forecasting from research to operations in selected regions as progress towards a nationwide capability, and focus on topics of immediate concern, e.g., HABs, hypoxia, and pathogensWater Quality Test & MonitoringImprove water quality testing and monitoring technologies. _eb096094-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD6Objective for R&D: Improved water quality testing and monitoring technologies. NOAA actively promotes research for developing tools and technologies to improve field detection of toxins, contaminants, pathogens, and toxigenic algae. This work relies on high-end scientific instrumentation, development of micro-fabrication technologies, new data processing methods, and ultra-sensitive analytical capabilities. A related aspect of the objective is development and application of procedures based on genomics, DNA probes, immunological biomarkers, bioinformatics, and modeling of biological systems that have a potential for offering a common denominator of health or a suite of measures that could better quantify source attribution and effects of stressors. All such technologies and systems have potential for commercial use. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop multiple methods for detecting Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) cells and toxins, including new methods for identifying and quantifying toxins in multiple matrices, rapid field detection methods for use by state and local managers, and in-water sensors for HAB observing systems * Develop and transition methods to correctly identify toxigenic algal species and their toxins and communicate quickly to regional managers and stakeholders through education and training programs * Develop a prototype membrane electrode for detecting algal toxin(s) in the field for routine monitoring and potential commercial use * Develop methods for taxonomic differentiation and classification of pathogens found in coastal environments and protected species, and identify factors for their virulence * Conduct research to identify the pathogenic strains of Vibrio spp. that cause illnesses related to seafood consumption to facilitate development of monitoring technologies * Advance Microbial Source Tracking methods that better identify, distinguish and predict human, domestic animal and wild sources of microbial pollutionWater Quality IssuesImprove understanding of emerging water quality issues, including the sources, environmental fate and ecological consequences of nanoparticles and microplastics._eb096422-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD7Objective for R&D: Improved understanding of emerging water quality issues, including the sources, environmental fate and ecological consequences of nanoparticles and microplastics. Nanoparticles, including fullerenes, in coastal waters present major analytical challenges and potential impacts. Some nanoparticles are now commercially produced for a wide range of applications, for example, as an oxygenation source in catalytic converters of internal combustion engines, antibacterial agents, sunscreens and a variety of coatings. They are found in wastewater effluents and coastal runoff. Data are beginning to emerge on their roles in retarding biological growth, disrupting geochemical cycling, and accelerating biological uptake of certain micoplastic contaminants, which are otherwise present in concentrations lower than the "level of concern". A related issue is of debris, on which there is sufficient scientific information to be concerned about their long-term ecological effects, and NOAA is engaged in elucidating pertinent scientific questions and approaches. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Identify the environmental significance of nanoparticles, focusing on metal oxides and carbon particles and develop a blueprint for high priority research needs and monitoring protocols * Assess the state of knowledge and scientific challenges in determining the quantity and ecological impacts of microplastics * Establish the relationship between microplastics and toxic chemicals in coastal and marine waters, and the resulting impacts on marine organisms via the food web Land-Based PollutionUnderstand the impacts of land-based sources of pollution._eb0966de-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD8Objective for R&D: Understand the impacts of land-based sources of pollution. Human influences on nutrient cycling, coastal pollution, and ocean acidification can be important forcing agents of change particularly for coastal and estuarine environments. The suite of problems facing coastal ecosystems from land-based sources of pollution is broad due to the variety of land-based activities that transport sediments, nutrients, and chemical contaminants via surface waters, runoff, groundwater seepage, and atmospheric deposition into coastal waters. For example, excess nutrients can cause eutrophication, which often stimulates excess algal primary production, leading to oxygen depletion as decomposers of the excess production consume oxygen. Extensive oxygen depletion leads to hypoxia (i.e. oxygen < 2 mg/l) and drives up CO2 acidifying local waters. Most aquatic species cannot survive in hypoxic waters and acidification causes further complications to some organisms. Multiple sources exist in watersheds with complex transport and delivery processes controlled by a range of factors. These factors include the chemistry, ecology, hydrology, and geomorphology of the watershed and receiving system. The health of many U.S. coastal ecosystems ultimately depends on effective management of land-based activities in adjacent coastal and upland regions. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Conduct characterizations of nutrient, microbological and other contaminant levels in the coastal zone receiving land and atmospheric based sources of pollution * Develop sensors for nutrients and chemical contaminants Support Gulf of Mexico ecosystem restoration by completing a risk assessment for the Gulf of Mexico as part of the Integrated Ecosystem Assessment NOAA-wide initiative * Assess the impacts of water use practices and atmospheric land-based pollution on marine and Great Lake coastal ecosystems, water quality, and human and animal healthOil-Spill ResponseStrengthen oil-spill response capabilities._eb096d0a-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD9Objective for R&D: Strengthen oil-spill response capabilities. NOAA will play a scientific advisory and support role to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator during Arctic oil spill and clean-up responses, as it does in other U.S. regions. The need for this capacity is urgent due to increased Arctic offshore drilling and maritime transit activities, and events such as the Japanese tsunami. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Apply genomics- and proteomics-based markers of exposure to petroleum and its effects on animals at the molecular level, with emphasis on marine mammals and protected species * Develop coastal inundation maps for the Chukchi Sea based on anticipated storm-surge occurrences * Document the likely movement, weathering and fate of crude oil trapped under sea ice and its likely effects of coastal ecosystemsArctic Marine EcosystemsImprove characterization of Arctic marine ecosystems._eb097156-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD10Objective for R&D: Improved characterization of Arctic marine ecosystems. Arctic ecosystems have evolved to cope with strong seasonal fluctuations in sunlight, presence of a permanently ice-covered deep ocean basin and seasonally covered marginal seas, episodic freshwater flows, generally low primary productivity, and low biological diversity. Similarly important are its connections with the Arctic and Pacific Oceans that enhance biological productivity in certain areas and serve as migratory corridors for marine mammals. The paucity of data on the Arctic ecosystem precludes knowledge of their organizational structure, energy flows and resilience. Predicting environmental consequences of climate change and industrial activities on the Arctic ecosystem is a major scientific challenge. Assessing the consequences of altered ecosystems on fisheries and wildlife resources, subsistence lifestyles, human settlements, regional economies and social fabric, and human health are key topics of study for the next five years. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Complete the pilot phase analysis and report on Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) activities and results * Characterize the distribution of biological resources and the associated key coastal habitats of the Chukchi Sea with maps of sediment distribution, background levels of oil and gas development-related contaminants, and potential toxicity * Identify areas of special value and vulnerability to offshore petroleum development and coastal infrastructure by applying NOAA's Biogeography Assessment Framework Sea IceImprove impact assessments of changing sea ice._eb097502-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eD11Objective for R&D: Improved impact assessments of changing sea ice. Rapidly changing environmental conditions in the Arctic have wide-ranging impacts, including effects of declining sea ice cover and longer duration of sea ice melting, and how such changes affect regional weather, biological productivity, and human communities reliant on coastal ecosystems. Reduced sea ice and snow cover also reduce the overall surface reflectivity of the region in summer -- positive feedback -- further moving the Arctic environmental systems toward a new state. As the ice-edge retreats, so do the phytoplankton blooms; relatively huge phytoplankton blooms are now observed beneath sea ice in Chukchi Sea, resulting in estimates of primary productivity that are 10 times greater than before. The ecological implications of such increased primary productivity, coupled with its northward extent, are not well known but they point to a shift in the pelagic-benthic coupling of food webs. In many parts of the Arctic this coupling is instrumental in delineating critical biological habitats, for example, the Chirikov Basin. The longer duration of open water also affects characteristics of sediment-laden ice, i.e., ice with coarse sediment, gravel and kelp uprooted of the seabed, and ice with fine-grained sediment (clay, silt, organic matter) that first appears near the top of the ice cover. In either case, sediment-laden ice drastically reduces light penetration below the sea ice cover and could have potentially strong consequences on coastal ecosystems. The U.S. Arctic is also becoming increasingly more favorable to routine maritime traffic, identified as an area for expanded oil and gas development in the near future, and would require changes in current oil spill response plans. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Assess the causes of the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice * Develop a sea ice forecasting testbed in the Chukchi--Beaufort Seas that tests and evaluates models from U.S. and Canadian agencies * Evaluate current and emerging technologies that could support navigation needs for trans-Arctic traffic, including ship-to-shore communications * Develop a sediment scavenging model that uses multiple sediment entrainment scenarios and factors that govern the entrainment, particularly fragile ice crystals, turbulence, storm events * Document changes in size and persistence of sea ice habitats, particularly recurring polynyi, landfast ice, and ice floes Stakeholder EngagementAn engaged and educated public with an improved capacity to make scientifically informed environmental decisions_c97a8084-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eENOAA's enterprise objective for Stakeholder Engagement is an engaged and educated public with an improved capacity to make scientifically informed environmental decisions. To achieve this objective, R&D will be directed to answer the following questions: * How can we support informed public response to changing environmental conditions? * How can we improve the way scientific information and its uncertainty are communicated?Decision-Making InformationImprove understanding of what kinds of information the public needs to make actionable decisions._c97a8214-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eE1The PublicObjective for R&D: Improved understanding of what kinds of information the public needs to make actionable decisions. NOAA's broad mission results in the need for quite different decision support approaches with stakeholders and the public, e.g. regulatory issues for fisheries, stewardship for marine sanctuaries, and public safety for severe weather. NOAA requires social science research on which techniques are best for these sorts of applications, where there are commonalities and where there are differences. This involves studying perceptions of risk of individuals, businesses, and communities, as well as their capacity to alter their actions once they have decided to do so. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Assess how the public perceives risk and uses probabilistic information to make decisions * Develop decision-support tools to inform stakeholders and the public on the impacts of critical issues, situations, and subsequent actions * Determine which stakeholder engagement methodologies are most effective for eliciting requirements for each of the Mission goals * Determine how to efficiently keep stakeholder and public requirements current Outcomes MeasurementsIdentify and measure NOAA's policy and programmatic outcomes through social science research._eb097d36-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eE2Objective for R&D: Identify and measure NOAA's policy and programmatic outcomes through social science research. The most appropriate way to describe policy and programmatic outcomes is with reference to NOAA's mission and to the societal value generated by NOAA's products and services. When social science capabilities are fully and appropriately integrated into NOAA activities, NOAA will be able to evaluate the contribution of its products and services with respect to the nation's stock of coastal and marine resources, commercial and non-market economic activities, and changes in the health and safety of the nation's citizens. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Conduct valuation assessments on priority NOAA programs, products and services * Develop a satellite account, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, that links NOAA's products and services to elements of the coastal and ocean economyInformation ConsumptionImproved understanding of how NOAA's stakeholders consume information._eb0981be-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eE3Objective for R&D: Improved understanding of how NOAA's stakeholders consume information. NOAA's success in performing its mission depends on successful communication of its objectives and scientific and economic information and guidance with stakeholders and the public. Consequently, NOAA needs social science research on how best to communicate the scientific content of its data, products, and guidance to achieve optimal societal benefit. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Apply qualitative research methodologies to assess targeted audiences and engage stakeholder groups at the community level to improve NOAA's capacity to efficiently inform decision-making * Create mechanisms to collaborate effectively with local and cultural knowledge in the development of science data and products * Assess emerging communication technologies and methods for improving public comprehension and use of NOAA's scientific information, products, and services * Optimize NOAA web presence with respect to communicating NOAA objectives, activities, products, services, and public issuesEnvironmental DataAccurate and Reliable Data from Sustained and Integrated Earth Observing Systems_c97a8390-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eFNOAA's enterprise objective for Environmental Data is accurate and reliable data from sustained and integrated Earth observing systems. To achieve this objective, R&D will be directed to answer the following questions: * What is the best observing system to meet NOAA's mission? * How can we best use current and emerging environmental data? * How can we improve the way we manage data?Quantitative MethodologiesQuantitative methodologies for assessing impacts of current and candidate observing systems to NOAA missions and products._c97a8548-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eF1Objective for R&D: Quantitative methodologies, including objective simulation-based approaches, for assessing impacts of current and candidate observing systems to NOAA missions and products. NOAA has the responsibility to optimize the effectiveness of its observing systems, from buoys to satellites. This requires evaluating candidate observing systems and deployment strategies in support of weather, physical oceanography, biological and ecological observing requirements. Coherent decision-support tools for sensor/system design, modeling and data assimilation choices, impact priority, and investment considerations are needed. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Establish an initial corporate capability to perform rigorous quantitative, simulation-based analysis to optimize NOAA's global observing system, extensible to the breadth of NOAA's mission objectives (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, regional and global forecast) * Conduct data evaluations (e.g., observing system experiments (OSE), observing system simulation experiments (OSSE)) for the significant components of NOAA's observing system * Develop an observation system prioritization tool based on quantitative impact assessments employed to optimize model predictions and projections of the Earth system * Develop an end-to-end satellite sensor simulator to fully understand the impact on NOAA applications from each individual satellite data source at various time and spatial scalesInformation MaximizationMaximize the amount of information from NOAA observing systems, partnerships, and leveraged non-NOAA observing capabilities. _eb0984ac-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF2Objective for R&D: Maximize the amount of information from NOAA observing systems, partnerships, and leveraged non-NOAA observing capabilities. Maximizing the information from NOAA's observing systems is constrained by resources; therefore, reducing life cycle costs of observations through the integration of systems, reducing unnecessary/duplicate capabilities, and leveraging available non-NOAA data to fill gaps are critical. This objective includes assessing the optimal location and density (spatial and temporal) of collected observations, informing the reconfiguration of existing NOAA observing systems. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop a system architecture that integrates non-NOAA data, optimally exploiting data from the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) * Evaluate technical options for, or modifications to, NOAA's current observing system that enhance understanding, provide accurate assessments, characterizations, and monitoring (including ecosystem state and processes), or reduce costs * Establish a method to assess the optimal location(s) and density (spatial and temporal) of collected observations to inform optimization of existing NOAA observing systems * Prototype a tool that optimizes NOAA vessel data collection scheduling while minimizing impact on other missions tasked to that vesselObservation SystemsImprove accuracy, coverage, resolution, and effectiveness, and cost of observation systems._eb098bb4-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF3Objective for R&D: Improved accuracy, coverage, resolution, and effectiveness, and cost of observation systems. NOAA aims to improve the accuracy of observational data to meet the needs of all users by leveraging advanced technologies, following best practices, and fostering the use of national/international standards and traceability as embraced by the NOAA calibration center, through collaboration with partner agencies, organizations (such as NIST and NASA), and the scientific community. This objective entails creating prototype sensors and methodologies that provide new ways of sensing NOAA's required observation parameters, increased measurement accuracy, and increased effectiveness/efficiency in measuring observations (e.g., enhanced coverage, resolution, and collection time). This objective also includes evaluating the utility, effectiveness, efficiency, and economy of new sensors and methodologies, as well as their transition to applications and operations. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Investigate new ways of sensing NOAA's required observation parameters for physical, chemical, biological parameters of the deep ocean * Develop marine sensors and biosensors capable of withstanding the stresses of an aquatic environment while providing accurate and reliable data * Develop instrumentation for highly-accurate measurements of ocean acidification in both surface and subsurface locations * Prototype instrumentation and methodologies for exploiting lidar and acoustics technologies to measure ocean parameters * Develop next-generation geostationary, GOES-R series, and polar-orbiting, JPSS series, operational environmental satellites * Develop JPSS User Services free-flyer satellites * Develop Jason Continuity of Service satellites for altimetry observations of the oceans Measurement UncertaintyAscertain quantified measurement uncertainty for all components of NOAA's observing system, as well as for non-NOAA data sources used operationally_eb098f7e-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF4Objective for R&D: Ascertain quantified measurement uncertainty for all components of NOAA's observing system, as well as for non-NOAA data sources used operationally. The uncertainty of a prediction or projection depends, in part, on the how well the accuracy of the input data is known; consequently, the uncertainty of the measurements employed in NOAA products, predictions, and projections needs to be determined. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Demonstrate an initial integrated satellite calibration and validation system (ICVS) to fully characterize the observational uncertainties from U.S. and foreign satellite data and to make global data more consistent in quality, standards, and intercalibration between instruments * Establish the measurement uncertainty for non-satellite instruments and observation systems for data analysis and model assimilationData Types & Observing CapabilitiesExploit emerging data types and observing capabilities to satisfy NOAA's observing requirements and to support new and improved applications, products, and services._eb099280-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF5Objective for R&D: Exploit emerging data types and observing capabilities to satisfy NOAA's observing requirements and to support new and improved applications, products, and services. NOAA seeks better ways to address its observing requirements, as well as technologies and methodologies that permit the measurement of previously unmeasured or unmeasurable requirements. NOAA needs full exploitation of its observations for mission-oriented applications to maximize the return on its observing system investments, extracting value by applying the observation data to the Nation's benefit. This objective aims to more fully leverage regional observing system data from the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (U.S. IOOS) and the broader international GEOSS, e.g., the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). The R&D to achieve this exploitation is comprised of prototyping and demonstrating new/improved observational data products and applications, including fusing satellite, other remotely sensed observations, in situ observations, and model-based analyses to generate the best possible depictions of the state of the oceans, atmosphere, climate, and marine ecosystems. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Demonstrate and transition to applications/operations NOAA's next-generation operational satellite data streams * Operationalize NOAA's first satellite ocean color capability (JPSS-1) * Operationalize the new polar-orbiting day-night band (JPSS-1) * Exploit international components of GEOSS for operational use, notably focusing on unique and complementary observations, such as satellite observations of sea-surface height, sea-surface salinity, sea and lake ice extent and thickness, high-resolution sea surface winds (including ocean surface vector winds), oil spill extent and thickness, and sea-surface swell waves * Automate sea-ice and snow cover data collection * Complete a conceptual design of an extended range version of the FSV-40 Oscar Dyson class ship ships * Transition unmanned airborne systems (UAS) and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) into NOAA's operational observing systemData AccessLeverage advanced technologies to improve data access._eb099956-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF6Objective for R&D: Leverage advanced technologies to improve data access. NOAA needs to ensure that data customers have easy and convenient access to timely, well-documented and accurate environmental data and information products. This objective comprises evaluating emerging communication technologies and delivery mechanisms to reduce information distribution costs. The goal is to demonstrate enhanced access and use of environmental data through data storage and access solutions and the integration of systems. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Prototype and tested internet services for real-time customization and localization, as well as on-demand visualization * Evaluate commercial cloud resource solutions for providing reliable, scalable access to NOAA data and information at a reduced cost * Demonstrate enhanced access and use of environmental data through data storage and access solutions and the integration of systems * Advance data assimilation through increased access to high-quality U.S. IOOS regional observing system data * Demonstrate significantly improved Direct Broadcast capabilities on JPSS-1, with a much wider swath * Demonstrate tools to help optimize use of growing volumes of observations and guidanceData ArchivingLeverage advanced technologies to improve data archiving technology._eb099dde-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF7Objective for R&D: Leverage advanced technologies to improve data archiving technology. Massively increasing volumes of data requires that NOAA leverages the latest technological solutions for integrating and archiving its data, along with all necessary metadata, in order to provide the capability for readily accessing the data later with full understanding of the dataset. This objective includes developing a capability for an enterprise computer and information system that delivers environmental products ranging from local to global predictions of short-range, high-impact events to longer-term intra-seasonal climate forecasts. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Establish an initial NOAA enterprise system for long-term safe storage and access for all critical NOAA data * Establish initial distributed catalog services that enable comprehensive cataloging of NOAA data * Demonstrate an enhanced onboard data management capability, including developing a vessel/aircraft data management framework and a Rolling Deck to Repository (R2R) ship catalog * Initiate a capability for an Operational Integrated National Information Management System supporting marine planning * Initiate prototyping, testing, and assessment of cloud-computing techniques for data management applications and servicesData StewardshipEnhance data stewardship._eb09a0fe-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eF8Objective for R&D: Enhance data stewardship. NOAA must develop and protect its investment in observations for future use while ensuring that the data reflect the highest quality, accomplished through the incorporation of the latest information, compilation techniques, scientific understanding, and calibrations. This task comprises producing authoritative quality-controlled environmental data records, such as Climate Data Records (CDRs) for designated parameters describing key physical and chemical processes that influence climate, weather, oceans, water quality, and ecosystems. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Reanalyze designated observation data records, employing the most current knowledge, information, techniques, and calibrations * Demonstrate improved quality-control techniques for radar data * Demonstrate improved metadata regarding quality and lineageEnvironmental ModelingAn Integrated Environmental Modeling System_c97a86ce-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eGNOAA's enterprise objective for Environmental Modeling is an integrated environmental modeling system. To achieve this objective, R&D will be directed to answer the following questions: * How can modeling be best integrated and improved with respect to skill, efficiency, and adaptability? * What information technology developments can help NOAA improve quantitative predictions?Models FrameworkA framework for linking, coupling, and nesting models. _c97a8854-6246-11e4-8f79-73721cebad4eG1Objective for R&D: A framework for linking, coupling, and nesting models. NOAA requires a framework for connecting and optimally exploiting its environmental models. This framework needs to provide standards for interoperability, the exchange and upgrade of model components, a modeling structure to address the spectrum of spatial and temporal scales, coupling across physical domains, connectivity between physical and ecosystem modeling, and effective data assimilation. Establishing an Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) will extend predictive capability from days to decades based on that enhanced understanding. and help identify and quantify uncertainty and risk. This objective aims to improve model nesting capabilities that optimize modeling, data assimilation, and prediction between different spatial/temporal scales and coverage, as well as enabling a robust operations-to-research (O2R) environment that facilitates research and subsequent transitions to applications and operations. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Develop Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) connectivity coupling the atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice at global and regional scales for NOAA's operational numerical models, serving as an initial NOAA ESPC capacity * Initialize modeling techniques and capabilities for coupling physical domains and ecosystem domains * Prototype optimal nesting between NOAA's operational global, regional, and coastal ocean models, as well as relevant operational ecological modelsEarth System ModelingAdvance Earth system modeling development, addressing underlying processes and relationships, seamless connectivity across spatial and temporal scales, and coupling across domains_eb09a7fc-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eG2Objective for R&D: Advance Earth system modeling development, addressing underlying processes and relationships, seamless connectivity across spatial and temporal scales, and coupling across domains. NOAA requires development, testing, and transition to applications and operations of state-of-the-art Earth system models that address fundamental processes and relationships relevant to changes in the ocean's physical and biological state. Processes of interest include forcing, fluxes, and feedbacks across ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, and land interfaces, extreme weather events, feedbacks in the global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, stratospheric and tropospheric changes and interactions with climate, Arctic predictions and climate-related changes, sea-level rise, decadal predictability, and space weather prediction. A key element of this objective is moving toward robust ecosystem modeling. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Extend NOAA's radiative transfer modeling capability to additional satellite sensors while demonstrating improved surface emissivity modeling, increased accuracy, and more efficient computation * Demonstrate skilled modeling of sea-ice, particularly for the Arctic region, incorporating improved modeling of ice processes, e.g. ice melt, and coupling with atmospheric and ocean forcing * Demonstrate a data-assimilating common-core surface and subsurface transport, mixing and fate (e.g., dispersion) modeling capability for ocean, coastal, and local scales * Prototype data-assimilating hydrodynamic modeling capabilities that include nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus (NPZD), and geochemistry, on relevant temporal and spatial scales for the oceans and coasts * Prototype modeling for understanding the factors affecting ocean and coastal ecosystems structure, function, and dynamics, building on initial NOAA capacity for projecting significant environmental changes over the next several decades and early warnings about threats to critical coastal and marine ecosystem servicesUncertainty QuantificationEstablish quantified uncertainties for NOAA's predictions and projections._eb09ac34-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eG3Objective for R&D: Establish quantified uncertainties for NOAA's predictions and projections. Models introduce uncertainty into predictions/projections due to how input data are used, how conditions and processes are modeled, and how approximations are employed. Consequently, modeling uncertainties need to be determined and integrated with observation measurement uncertainties to establish overall prediction/projection uncertainty. Result differences due to model differences, as seen through ensemble prediction, are a measure of the uncertainty associated with specific predictions/projections. The integration of observation and model uncertainties is required to determine the uncertainty of predictions/projections and to provide a more useful decision-making product. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Quantify model uncertainty and skill for all NOAA operational models and forecast products, including quantified understanding of the uncertainties between different climate models in their projections of sea ice, atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere interactions, and ocean heat storage * Develop an initial capability to produce objective uncertainty information for models and products from the global to the regional scale * Prototype an ensemble prediction system for evaluating probability at multiple spatial and temporal scales * Improve probabilistic predictions, with routine evaluation of the skill and accuracy of operational wind, solar, and moisture forecasts * Develop raw and post-processed probabilistic products easily accessible at full spatial and temporal resolution Data Integration & AssimilationAdvance data integration and assimilation into Earth system modeling._eb09afc2-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eG4Objective for R&D: Advance data integration and assimilation into Earth system modeling. Data assimilation is a critical element of any environmental modeling system, anchoring model results with observations to advance representativeness and predictive skill, extracting return on NOAA's investments in its observing system. New data assimilation techniques, new instrumentation and sources, and non-standard or intermittent data, e.g., unmanned aerial and ocean vehicles, integrated ocean observing system instruments, and instrumented marine mammals, require R&D for transitions into NOAA applications and operations. NOAA will conduct research on data assimilation for improved representation and predictive skill of: high-impact events (e.g., tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms, floods/droughts, poor air quality, winter weather, fire weather, marine and coastal weather, short-term climate variability); economic sectors requiring significantly improved forecast services (e.g., aviation, emergency management, renewable energy); aviation-relevant issues (e.g., convection, ceiling, visibility); and fine-scale predictions of near-surface conditions. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Prototype data assimilation methods for: coupled modeling; two-way nested modeling; and transport and fate modeling * Develop hybrid and ensemble assimilation methods for standard, non-standard, and intermittent observations * Assimilate non-NOAA IOOS, private sector, and international GEOSS data, particularly non-satellite data, into NOAA research and operational models, addressing feasibility, data quality, skill improvement * Demonstrate enhanced ocean data integration and assimilation for current and emerging data types, specifically salinity, ocean color parameters, synthetic aperture radar parameters (e.g. high-resolution winds, swell spectra), HF radar, freshwater inputs (riverine), and biogeochemical data * Prototype integration of newly available ice thickness data and improved (automated) ice-coverage data within NOAA's operational suite of forecast models for improved ice modeling and to inform the surface energy budget Reference DataProduce best-quality reference data._eb09b616-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eG5Objective for R&D: Produce best-quality reference data. Many R&D activities require high-quality long-duration observation datasets. Quality, in part, is determined by how well the data represents the best understanding of the observations. Improved information, understanding, and techniques for retrievals, calibration, sampling, and representation need to be applied to accumulated datasets via reprocessing and reanalysis to ensure that the data represents the best currently possible understanding of the observations. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Reanalyze extended operational satellite observation records to generate calibrated and refined analysis of global and regional climate temperature, precipitation, and related ecosystem changes and trends * Reanalyze operational model results, examining differences for enhanced understanding of environmental processes and relationshipsTechnology AlternativesIdentify economical technology alternatives for computational effectiveness and efficiency._eb09ba12-62af-11e4-9290-0d7a1cebad4eG6Objective for R&D: Identify economical technology alternatives for computational effectiveness and efficiency. NOAA requires technology solutions, in addition to mission-focused R&D, to enable its science enterprise, particularly for its computationally and communications intensive components, such as numerical predictions. An important element of this objective is establishing a robust O2R high-performance computing environment. Over the next 5 years, NOAA aims to: * Evaluate fine-grained computing technologies within NOAA's IT architecture as a computing resource for running NOAA models * Prototype, test, and assess cloud-computing techniques, demonstrating shipboard cloud-computing2012-10-012017-09-302014-11-02http://nrc.noaa.gov/sites/nrc/Documents/5YRDP/2013 NOAA 5 Year Plan_FINAL version.pdfOwenAmburOwen.Ambur@verizon.net